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Signal™ is a ScoutStar product by Watermark One Tech

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SIGNAL
The System
The System Is Simple.
The Discipline Is the Hard Part.
Rule 01
Odds Filter
Signal only considers underdogs priced between +100 and +150. Too cheap and there is no edge. Too expensive and you are chasing longshots. The window is narrow on purpose. Negative-odds teams and heavy favorites are excluded — if a team isn't a true underdog, the system doesn't touch it.
Rule 02
Streak Health
If the underdog is on a 3-game losing streak, they are eliminated. If the favorite is on a 3-game winning streak, the game is eliminated. Momentum mismatches are where sharp money eats recreational bettors alive. During the early-season calibration period (approximately the first 15 games), streak data is treated as insufficient and this rule defaults to pass. Full enforcement begins once a meaningful sample is available.
Rule 03
Elite Pitcher Filter
Every game is checked against the Signal Composite™ Top 20 pitcher rankings, a consensus built from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and FantasyPros. Facing a Top 20 pitcher? Game eliminated. No exceptions. If a starting pitcher has not been announced by game time, the game is held as Pending Confirmation — it cannot qualify until the starter is known.
Every game. Every day. Picks are published by 10 AM ET and locked at first pitch. Qualified plays go to the board. Pending games wait for pitcher confirmation. Eliminated plays show you exactly why they did not make the cut.
VEGAS
Where It Came From
A Las Vegas Bookmaker
Published the Strategy.
We Built the Software.

Las Vegas legend Tony Stoffo spent his career managing the race and sports book at the Desert Inn Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. He was not a tout. He was not selling picks. He was a working professional in the betting industry who observed patterns, wrote them down, and published them.

"Most recreational bettors lose because they bet on feeling. Systematic filtering removes the noise and gives you a repeatable edge."

His insight was simple: most recreational bettors lose because they bet on feeling. The market prices favorites and underdogs based on public perception, not probability. Systematic filtering removes the noise and gives you a repeatable edge.

Harold Waters, Jr. read that work and built Signal around it. The three rules are Stoffo's. The software, the database, the odds integration, the pitcher ranking system, the two-mode architecture — that is Watermark One Technologies.

Signal is a technology product built on a published idea. It stands on the shoulders of someone who knew the industry from the inside.

EDGE
What We Are Tracking
The Math Is Straightforward.
The Execution Is the Edge.
50-56%
Win Rate Target
At +125 average odds, 44% breaks even. We target 50–56% — up to a 12-point edge over break-even. The goal is not perfection — it is consistency.
1.5%
Per Play
Fixed percentage bankroll management limits drawdown and compounds returns. The math protects you when you lose.
155-158
Games Per Season
Signal tracks the MLB Regular Season only. Spring Training is used for system testing — not wagering. Opening Day is day one.
Signal is in its inaugural season. Live performance data will be published as results are recorded. We do not backfill. We do not cherry-pick. You will see every win and every loss.
Signal™ is a product of Watermark One Technologies, a division of Watermark One Enterprises.
Built by Harold Waters, Jr. — Atlanta, Georgia.
Theoretical basis: Tony Stoffo, Desert Inn Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada.
A ScoutStar Product

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Log Bet
Team (Underdog)
Game Time
Odds Taken editable
Bet Amount editable
Sportsbook editable
Reason for skipping

Signal™

MLB Underdog Betting System

Classic Mode

Today's Picks

Scores load after picks run —

Control Panel

1.5% LOCKED
+150 LOCKED
⚠ Settlement pending from a previous day — new picks are locked until yesterday's results are recorded.
Analysis Progress
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📋 System Rules & Information

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Signal™ is a systematic MLB underdog betting system designed to identify profitable plays through three filter rules.

The Three Rules:

  • Rule 1 — Odds Filter: Underdog moneyline must be between +100 and +150. Below +100 means the team isn't actually an underdog. Above +150 means too much variance; longshots dilute the edge over time. Negative-odds teams are hard-blocked regardless of how they appear on the card.
  • Rule 2 — Streak Health: Underdog must not be on a 3+ game losing streak. Favorite must not be on a 3+ game winning streak. Calibration period note: during approximately the first 15 games of the regular season, streak data is flagged as insufficient and Rule 2 defaults to pass. Bets logged during this period are marked in the database as Rule 2 Calibrating for audit purposes. Full enforcement begins once 15+ regular-season games per team are recorded.
  • Rule 3 — Elite Pitcher Filter: Both starting pitchers are checked against the Signal Composite™ Top 20. If either starter appears in the Top 20, the game is eliminated. If a starting pitcher has not been announced (TBD), the game is placed in Pending Confirmation status. Re-run picks after 10 AM ET when lineups are typically posted.

Goal: Achieve 50–56% win rate on filtered plays to consistently profit against the house edge. Success comes from compound returns with disciplined 1.5% bankroll management.

The Signal Season: Signal tracks the MLB Regular Season, approximately 155–158 games per team. Spring Training is used exclusively for system testing. The first ~15 games of the regular season serve as the calibration period. Full Rule 2 enforcement engages once 15+ regular season games per team are recorded.

History and Attribution: The foundational filtering concept was developed and published by Tony Stoffo, former Race and Sports Book Manager of the Desert Inn Casino, Las Vegas. Signal was independently developed by Harold Waters, Jr. of Watermark One Technologies as a computational advancement of that methodology.

Planned Modes:

  • Strict Mode: All three rules must pass
  • Variable Mode: Customizable rule weighting
  • Practice Mode: Track plays without real money

📊 Sportsbook Log (Coming Soon)

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Track your actual plays with sportsbook selection, final odds, timestamp, and transaction details.

This feature is planned for Phase 2 and will integrate with your live play tracking and analytics dashboard.

📋 Daily Notes & Observations ▼